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Welcome to week 12 of the NFL season.
We saw some great fantasy performances last week, but we also saw a few duds. For what it’s worth, I thought we had one of our better weeks in week 11. We nailed the “starts” of Jared Goff, David Montgomery, and Jonnu Smith. And also were spot on with sitting Kirk Cousins, Brian Thomas Jr., and Evan Engram.
On the other hand, we did have some misses (but not many). I was flat wrong on sitting Javonte Williams. I still don’t think he’s a weekly start, but he did have 13 touches and a TD. And Cedric Tillman in Cleveland was a miss. He had been on a tear but gave us just 7.7 points (he did have 8 targets which provides a little hope).
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Let’s keep our hot streak going. The last few weeks have been pretty solid so let’s see what we can do this week. As an FYI, a reminder that the Bills, Jets, Falcons, Bengals, Saints, and Jaguars are on bye this week. You’ll have to really use your bench. Take a look below and tell me where I’m right/wrong…
***Disclaimer*** I give this statement every week but it’s important to remember there are players you’re basically starting or sitting each week. I tend to try and pick some of the more 50/50 players and write about them. You’ll see that trend as you go.
Quarterbacks
Start ’em – Bo Nix
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Bo Nix – Admittingly, I haven’t always been on the Nix bandwagon but I’m starting to come around. And this week with the Raiders next on the schedule it’s the perfect time to keep riding the hot hand. Nix has thrown 6 TD with 0 INT the last two weeks and if you want to extrapolate that even more he’s now averaging 21.5 over the last seven games.
Sit ’em – Sam Darnold
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Sam Darnold – Since week 5 I haven’t been on the Darnold train. But last week he was pretty good (246 yards, 2 TD, 23.6 fantasy points) in the Vikings’ win over the Titans. Unfortunately, I’m just not buying it this week. Despite all their struggles the Bears defense has been pretty good against opposing QB’s, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Running Backs
Start’ em – Bucky Irving & Rachaad White
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Tampa Bay Bucs –I tend to like Bucky Irving a little more than Rachaad White, but if either are on your team it’s hard to not start them at RB or the Flex position. Let’s start with Irving as he’s been 17+ points four of the last five weeks, including 16 touches and a TD last week against the 49ers. In the same vein, White also had 16 touches last week with 6 of those coming in the passing game. He’s scored double digits the last four games with an average of 19 points per week. Combine this with a leaky Giants run defense and you have yourself a good matchup on Sunday.
Sit ’em – Tony Pollard
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Tony Pollard – The last two weeks with Will Levis back at QB hasn’t been kind to Pollard. He’s totaled just 59 yards on 18 carries and hasn’t scored a TD since week 6. You also have to factor in his nagging foot injury and the fact the Titans are facing a top 5 defense against the run in the Houston Texans.
Wide Receiver
Start ’em – Josh Downs
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Josh Downs – One of the more pleasant surprises from Anthony Richardson’s return last week was his connection with Downs. Before last Sunday I was fearful Downs’ numbers would only be acceptable with Joe Flacco at QB. And now I’m thinking that might not be the case (5 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD last week). The last four weeks Downs has averaged 17 points and has 2 TD during that timeframe. I expect points to be scored in Indy on Sunday.
Sit ’em – Jayden Reed
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Jayden Reed – It’s frustrating being a fantasy owner of Reed. All the talent is there. Hell, I called him the next Tyreek Hill earlier this season. But the reality is that the Packers offense just isn’t as high powered as we once thought and there are too many options. Who knows week to week who’s going to “hit” in any particular game. In fact, the last four weeks Reed has just 11 catches and has eclipsed double digit points just once.
Tight End
Start ’em – Will Dissly
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Will Dissly – I contemplated writing about Bucs TE Cade Otton, but at this point I view him as a “must start” especially against the Giants defense. So, if you’re in need consider Dissly who is rostered in just 24% of ESPN leagues. But be aware because it does come with risk. While Dissly exploded for 18 points last week you’re going to need a few more targets or a TD to feel really good. I’m banking on a high scoring affair with Baltimore (over/under 49.5) who is in the bottom third of the NFL in guarding the TE position.
Sit ’em – Tucker Kraft
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Tucker Kraft – The talent is there but the production just isn’t in any consistent manner. And after last week’s 0-point performance (only 1 target) it’s hard to back to Kraft this week against the 49ers. Much like my write up on Jayden Reed there’s just too many questions and randomness on who is going to get the ball in the Green Bay offense. Combine this with the 49ers having allowed just 3 TE to hit double digits and the recipe is there to sit Kraft on Sunday.
Defense
Start ’em – Kansas City Chiefs
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Chiefs – I’ve been riding the KC defense much of the year and will do so again Sunday in Carolina. Seriously, who doesn’t love that matchup? You’re getting an angry Chiefs defense up against one of the league’s worst offenses…dial it up on Sunday!
Sit ’em – Los Angeles Rams
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Rams – This might be a little controversial since LA has been a pretty good defense since week 5 (averaging 11.5 points). If you have a better option, I’d consider sitting and that has a lot to do with Philly’s offense. The Eagles are averaging nearly 26 points and 400 yards per game this season (28 ppg the last 4 games). I think we get a shootout in LA and that will cancel out sack and potential turnover numbers from the Rams defense.